UK weather: Met Office forecasts ten day trend
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The typical autumn season has far from made its mark this year – and the latter part of October will be no different. Some “quite high temperatures” have been predicted over the next 10 days by the Met Office, despite a low pressure-dominated forecast in the lead-up to Halloween. This means the UK is set to experience heavy rain, gusty winds and some hot days all at once. This, according to presenter and meteorologist, Alex Deakin, is driven by a low-pressure system sitting in the southwest.
He said: “Low-pressure is going to dominate things for the next 10 days, bringing spells of wet and windy weather and also some quite high temperatures.”
“We’ve got this large area of low pressure. It’s a mature feature, which means it’s been around for a while. The reason it’s not shifting is because of the position of the jet stream, which is driving south through the Atlantic and creating a trough, allowing this low to mill around and driving up other weather fronts.
“Fast forward to Monday and the pressure hasn’t really changed very much. The low has shifted a little bit further north.
“There’s another one spawning out in the Atlantic and the jet stream hasn’t really shifted either. So that means bands of showery rain over the next five days, with the isobars often squeezing together, bringing spells of gusty winds.”
The low pressure is being blamed for the contrasting conditions as it’s helping to draw warmer air up from the south. This is despite the unsettled weather will be possible through the weekend and into early next week, according to Met Office data.
“Because of that warmer air for the next several days, it’s going to be warmer than average by day,” he added.
“Particularly warmer than average across the south at night. Between these weather fronts, there will, at times, be spells of sunshine and when the sun is out it’s going to feel quite mild.”
Top temperatures will peak in the southeast at 18C inland on Wednesday and Thursday next week, with the Midlands and the north seeing only a few degrees dropping – bringing its highs to 15C during the settled parts of those days.
While certainty over weather forecasts drops off over longer ranges, the Met Office’s predictions for Halloween and into the start of November indicate this pattern may continue.
It says: “To begin the period, unsettled conditions are expected with rain or showers for many. The northeast is likely to experience the most persistent rain on Monday, with heavy, occasionally thundery showers, interspersed with drier, sunny spells elsewhere.
“Further wet weather is likely to move in from the southwest on Tuesday. Generally windy for most, with a risk of coastal gales in the southwest at times.
“Unsettled conditions are expected to continue dominating through the remainder of this period, with further showers and longer spells of rain for many. A risk of stronger winds or gales at times, particularly in the north and west. Temperatures will most likely be above normal for much of the UK.”
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Weather maps for Halloween next weekend show a wide range of temperatures, creating a north-south divide. On Saturday and Sunday, the south can see highs of 15C, which drops to 10C by Sunday afternoon.
In the north, the mercury will be far cooler, with highs of 9C and 5C respectively. On official Halloween, which is Monday, October 31, thermometers will start to level-up with highs of 9C in the north and 10C in the south.
Looking ahead into November, the Met Office added: “Relatively mild and changeable at first, with a mix of showers and spells of rain interspersed by some sunny spells.Rainfall is expected to focus over the northwest with a risk of stronger winds also.
“Drier conditions are expected towards the southeast. There is an increasing chance of a prolonged period of settled weather developing during the second week of November, likely bringing some chilly nights with mist, fog and frost in places.”
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