Long-range forecast: UK to bake as ‘first real heat’ HITS after subtropical air sweeps in

UK weather chart shows spike in temperatures in May

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High pressure is expected to push into Northwest Europe during May, which could send temperatures soaring in southern regions of England following a wet and windy end to April. Brian Gaze, a forecaster at The Weather Outlook, predicted subtropical air to sweep balmy conditions across southeastern parts of England during the second week of May. Temperatures could rocket to a scorching 22C in Cambridge and Peterborough on Monday, May 10, according to WXCHARTS.

Further south, London, Kent and Essex could bask in 21C on the same day, with northern regions including Leeds and the Yorkshire Dales also potentially seeing the same temperatures.

Western and northeastern regions of England are also likely to see double digits as highs of 19C hits Liverpool, Stoke and Newcastle.

Mr Gaze told Express.co.uk: “Some computer model runs are suggesting a change in the weather patterns during the second week of May, with the possibility of areas of low pressure becoming slow moving and centred to the west of the UK.

“If that happens subtropical air could be pulled up across parts of the UK, with the south and southeast most likely to experience warmer conditions at times.

“However, it would probably remain quite unsettled with an ongoing risk of showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west.

“By mid-May there are possible signs of it becoming drier and more settled for a while.

“There are also tentative indications of warm conditions towards the end of May and that is often the time of year when the first real heat is felt.”

The BBC added temperatures could be above average by the end of the month depending on the positioning of high pressure.

The long-range forecast between Monday, May 10 and Sunday, May 23, said: “As we head into late May, the confidence in the forecast drops with computer models struggling to pin down the high.

“At this point we usually turn to our historical analogues for some extra guidance, where we examine previous years which similar large scale weather patterns to this year.

“However, these are also giving us some mixed signals on where high pressure will end up.

“Based on the factors that we think will be the most significant in the coming weeks, we expect the most likely scenario is for high pressure to build over Northwest Europe, including the UK, before shifting east towards the end of May.

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“This would bring a lot of dry weather but also begin to increase the temperatures to near or above average.

“The best chance for above-average temperatures is with a southerly wind on the western edge of high pressure, but we might have to wait until late May for that pattern to develop.”

The Met Office’s long-range forecast also said the end of May is likely to see sunshine and dry spells.

The forecast between Friday, May 14 and Friday, May 28, said: “Towards the end of the period, uncertainty increases, as is typical of spring.

“It is largely expected to remain unsettled, though spells of fine, dry weather will become possible, especially at the very end of the period.

“Temperatures likely to start trending higher, but it is unlikely to become unseasonably warm.

“Confidence is very low for this outlook as is typical of late spring.

“A mixture of sunny/clear spells and showers is likely, especially at first, with areas in the south experiencing the most settled conditions.

“In the north, there is an increased chance of more unsettled weather, with stronger winds and longer periods of rain arriving from the Atlantic at times.

“Temperatures will most likely be around average for the time of year.”

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